[axman88]

Good news from Sondors:  https://electrek.co/2021/03/03/sondors-metacycle-electric-motorcycle-production-ahead-of-schedule/ 

Apparently they are letting some folks in the preorder group know that they need to have their money ready for delivery as soon as September.

No announcement yet from Sondors of a price increase.

My buddy had his $100 deposit refunded by Sondors.  He didn't make the cut for Q4 of 2021, and they didn't automatically shuttle him to the Q1 of 2022 group. They told him to try to pre-order again, after May 1.

In a world of Go Fund Me and Kick Starter promises, all this sounds pretty legit to me.

[Karl Fenn]

Never the less l still dislike them.

[axman88]

Never the less l still dislike them.

Yes, I see from reading your many posts that most things in the world fall into that category.

I guess that you are not aware that NOT posting on a topic is an option?

[Nitrowing]

I guess that you are not aware that NOT posting on a topic is an option?

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/05/17/remain-silent/

[axman88]

The manufacturing company that I work for has definitely been experiencing supply problems.  Steel, aluminum, plastic, even things like laminate films, and caster wheels are all hit or miss.  Lead times have doubled then doubled again.  It keeps an engineer busy, making substitutions and devising work-arounds.

It seems like Sondors is having issues too.  They have delayed delivery of the upcoming Metacycle, and closed the pre-order for 2022 delivery.  There have been rumors of a $1000 price increase, before the first machines are even delivered.

Here we can see some images of a pre-production prototype:  https://electrek.co/2021/11/19/exclusive-first-look-at-the-production-ready-sondors-metacycle-electric-motorcycle/

The styling has been toned down a bit, some compromises are inevitable as a product goes from the drawing board to the production line.

[axman88]

Looks like the Metacycle is getting close to fulfillment.

https://m.facebook.com/pg/sondorsX/posts/

For those who plunked down $1000, then waited, and waited, and waited, and waited, I'm sure the anticipation is great.  For those who took a wait and see attitude, the price has predictably increased, ... to $6K

https://sondorsx.com/products/sondors-metacycle-2022-shipping

As I figure it, unless gas prices drop, this purchase price is about equal to the money most riders will pump into their gas tanks over ten years of riding, and every week the calculation yields a shorter payback period.  The cost of replacement / backup LI pack is the remaining part of the cost calculus.   Unlike some manufacturer, I'm pretty sure Sondors will be offering these, as they do for their bicycles.  https://shop.sondors.com/collections/sondors-x-xs-fat-tires-electronics-1/products/sondors-x-xs-48v-battery

With an 80 mile range, this won't be the preferred machine for the iron butt, cross country riders, but it would be a fine choice for folks like me, who have daily need for relatively short transport.   Power is a step down from my Royal Enfield, but greater than the 150cc scooter I'm commuting with these days.  I could charge on Sunday morning and ride all week.

[AzCal Retred]

That's pretty on track with the Honda Super Cub. They seem to retail for between $4K to $5K, hold a gallon of fuel, make about 10 HP out of that venerable 125cc single. Basically for about the same money the Sondors gives you the EV version. Not too shabby considering Honda has a 60 year production experience advantage. Any idea what king of service life to expect from the Metacycle?

[axman88]

Any idea what king of service life to expect from the Metacycle?

We can try to gauge that based on Sondors electric bicycles.  Sondors bicycles have earned a pretty good reputation, with steady refinement and improvement of design and introduction of new models, but with any new design it's difficult to say if there will be some major issue that will be the Achilles heel.  If that fancy cast aluminum exo-frame starts cracking, for example, ....  I'll be getting me one cheap!

The Metacycle uses a hub motor, (I'm assuming it's the internal planetary geared type)  which is a relatively simple and mature tech.  I'm seeing estimates between around 20,000 and 100,000 miles for the life expectancy of bicycle motors.  Bicycle batteries are said to have life of 1000 recharge cycles or 3 - 5 years. 

This technology is all getting mature, but not enough so to have much real world long term history.  Sondors was doing "Accelerated Durability Testing." almost a year ago, to the tune of 9000 simulated miles per day.   An article published back then said;

SONDORS says the Metacycle drivetrain has now racked up over 300,000 miles (510,000 km) of testing - and all those revolutions without suffering any major issues. The company adds that the battery has also been put to the test to the tune of 1,000 successful “charge” and “discharge” cycles.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/sondors-metacycle-electric-motorcycle-faces-durability-testing-before-q3-deliveries-167918.html

The production delays have hopefully had the beneficial effect of giving Sondor's engineers the opportunity to pull bugs out that might otherwise have been included in the first production machines.  Time will tell.

Stacking against the Honda Cub is an interesting comparison.  The Metacycle is said to have a nominal 11 hp and 20 peak, but I've seen torque numbers mentioned that are on the order of 200 ft-lbs peak.  I'm skeptical of that number, which is about twice what a Harley Big Twin claims, and on a vehicle that weighs only 200 lbs.  My Stella 4T 150cc scooter weighs about 260 lbs, has about 9 hp, and serves up a measly 9 ft-lbs.  Our RE 500 UCEs deliver around 30 ft-lbs, which I find to be a satisfying amount of get go.  This little aluminum framed E-skoot might be turn out to be a really fun (and economical) little ride.

[AzCal Retred]

I'm guessing the Super Cub likely needs a top end rebuild every 50K - 75K miles as it spends more time WFO, likely every 4 - 8 years if ridden regularly. From the sound of it, the Metacycle should run close to 20 years with just tires, tubes & cables. A "lifetime" investment for most of us here, yes?

[GlennF]

From the sound of it, the Metacycle should run close to 20 years with just tires, tubes & cables. A "lifetime" investment for most of us here, yes?

I tis going to need at least three or four battery sets over 20 years as no current battery has an indefinite shelf life once installed, even if not ridden.

Still going to be pretty economical though, even with battery replacement every 3 to 5 years.

[axman88]

I tis going to need at least three or four battery sets over 20 years as no current battery has an indefinite shelf life once installed, even if not ridden.

Maybe, or maybe not.  We shouldn't be talking about shelf life, which means no recharging, and will kill from self discharge.  Anything suffers from neglect.  Similarly if we are recharging every day, or two or three times a day, lifetime will again be relatively short.  But a usage scenario that draws the battery down to 30% and charges to 80% could last much longer.  Folks who ride 50 miles a week, at low average speeds, (like my commuting scenario), might only need to recharge 60 times a year.  Depending on the temperature of my garage, that battery might last an impressively long time.  Probably not the 1000 recharge cycles / 60 recharges/ year = 16 years, but perhaps.

Industry standards say that batteries are officially dead when they can only be charged to 80% of their rated capacity.  I bet there are a heck of a lot of gas powered motos out on the streets that, due to voluntary modifications, age and/or neglect, can't achieve 80% of factory claimed fuel tank range.  We just fill them up more often.  This is how a lot of us treat our cell phones, and laptops, they don't get new battery, they spend more time being charged

At least one person, much more educated than me, thinks that we can expect much more life from our LI-ion batteries, up to 20 years:   https://insideevs.com/news/317649/expert-what-you-know-about-lithium-batteries-is-wrong-can-last-up-to-20-years/

I've got an old sealed lead acid car battery in utility service, that if it isn't already that age, is approaching 20.  I'm sensitive to its needs and it does what I ask it to do, standing in for moto batteries on bikes being serviced, jumping cars, running an inverter, whatever needs doing.  It gets re-charged when it needs it, a period that can be measured in weeks or months.

[Richard230]

As someone who has owned 5 electric motorcycles over the past 10 years, I will make this comment:  Most had a decent design for the time, but their reliability was let down by the components sourced typically from China. Various components, like AC chargers, DC-DC converters, motors, bearings, controllers, batteries and other parts can and usually will fail after some time and miles. Motorcycles and their owners are really tough on parts and the manufacturers are not willing to pay for the best components, such as you see in electric cars manufactured by the big and established brands, because everyone is trying to get the MSRP as low as possible to attract customers who are comparing electric motorcycle prices with gas-powered prices. Plus, electric motorcycle manufacturers rarely have the resources to be able to attract the best component manufacturers - with the exception of H-D, of course.

I might add that I have no knowledge regarding Sondors products, perhaps they are an exception. 

[Arschloch]

I've never seen an successful manufacturer to pay the extra for the "best" parts available ever. Pretty sure even Öhlins source their parts for the products they sell by an compromise between functional necessity and cost. It's the conceptual design that makes them excell on the racetrack which is an advertising point if you like to pay the extra for the premium functionality and quality, not exactly needed on a day to day work horse.

[Richard230]

BTW, one example of how things don't always work out for startup EV manufacturers, are Zero's 2012 electric motorcycles. Their entire production of 2012 motorcycles (about 200 that year) was recalled in 2018 due to a few of the bikes catching fire when being charged. See the attached letter that I received for my 2012 Zero, which I had given to my daughter when I bought a 2014 Zero S (which she still has and is running fine - with a replacement AC charger). She sold the 2012 back to Zero for $6,400, which she used to help fund the down payment on the home that they were buying at the time. Zero came to her home, picked it up and gave her a check.

[GlennF]

Buy backs of problem product lines that simply are not very good, are not that unusual:

https://airfactsjournal.com/2018/01/why-the-starship-was-such-a-disaster/#:~:text=Beech%20built%2053%20Starships%20and,the%20tiny%20but%20complex%20fleet.

Beech built 53 Starships and only a handful were sold. The rest were leased because almost nobody wanted to sign on for an open-ended conventional ownership. In the end Beech tried to buy back all of the Starships to put a couple in museums and destroy the rest to end the cost of supporting the tiny but complex fleet.