Author Topic: ישראל כחזית השלישית  (Read 12169 times)

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AzCal Retred

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on: October 09, 2023, 03:00:55 am
So Iran, China & Russia's partner in crime, conveniently funds & opens a 3rd front in Israel? So possibly US-armed soon-to-be-BRICs partner Saudi Arabia may become a combatant against Israel. Remember this guy? Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia? Not a friendly guy at all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_bin_Salman

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/24/business/saudi-arabia-brics-invitation-intl/index.html#:~:text=Russian%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20delivers,in%20Johannesburg%20on%20August%2024.&text=Oil%20powers%20Saudi%20Arabia%20and,expansion%20in%20over%20a%20decade.
Oil powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been invited to become members of the BRICS group of developing nations in its first expansion in over a decade.
Also invited are Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said Thursday as he wrapped up the annual summit of the group in Johannesburg.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said the kingdom was awaiting details from the BRICS group on the nature of the membership, and would take an “appropriate decision” accordingly.
All six countries invited had already expressed an interest in joining. The BRICS group currently includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
“The membership will take effect from the first of January, 2024,” Ramaphosa said.



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GlennF

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Reply #1 on: October 09, 2023, 06:58:56 am
meh ... the US can be quite opportunistic when it comes to choosing allies.

Remember how they were supplying arms to the Taliban and blocking UN moves to sanction Saddam Hussein back in the 1980's .


AzCal Retred

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Reply #2 on: October 09, 2023, 06:14:17 pm
All true and regrettable. Won't make it easier for the Israli's (or us) have a well funded & armed potential adversary sitting on the sidelines.
The pitiful part here is that there so little to fight over. Killing each other over bragging rights to inhabit a dessicated speck of the world.

Maybe the whole issue is that the geographic area residents are apparently trying to outbreed each other in an area with few actual resources. Look at the population growth rates between 1948 and today, well above the world averages. Palestine is near 900 people per square Km., Israel at maybe 450, and even Vietnam has only around 250 but it rains there. India has rainfall & maybe 430/sq. km., & even China is only about 150. Maybe address the real problem first? Or is it considered better to ignore an important disruptive factor and "just let nature take its course"?
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AzCal Retred

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Reply #3 on: October 09, 2023, 07:06:07 pm
US moves warships closer to Israel after Hamas attack

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67049196

The US says it is moving an aircraft carrier, ships and jets to the eastern Mediterranean and will also give Israel additional equipment and ammunition.
It follows the Hamas attack on southern Israel, which President Biden called an "unprecedented and appalling assault".
A US National Security spokesperson said several US citizens were among the dead.
Israel says more than 700 people have been killed and 100 kidnapped.
In Gaza, more than 400 people have been killed following retaliatory Israeli air strikes, according to Palestinian officials.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said the USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier, a missile cruiser and four missile destroyers were heading to the region. He said fighter jets would also be sent.
Further military aid to Israel would be sent in the coming days, the White House said, adding that the US was working to ensure Israel's enemies did not try to seek advantage from the situation.
The large deployment reflects American concerns that the conflict between Israel and Hamas could draw in other parts of the region.
In particular, the US is eager to prevent Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah movement from joining the conflict. It is backed by Iran, which also funds and arms Hamas.
Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi has expressed support for the Hamas attack, saying Israel needed to be held to account for endangering the region.
Hamas has said assistance from Iran helped it carry out its attack, which involved rockets, drones and militants on paragliders and saw hundreds of fighters break through Israeli border fortifications around the Gaza Strip.


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AzCal Retred

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Reply #4 on: October 10, 2023, 09:31:56 pm
Israeli military says it is responding to fire from Syria with artillery and mortar shelling
Associated Press; October 10, 2023, 12:56 PM
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israeli-military-responding-fire-syria-artillery-mortar-shelling-103873262

Shells launched at Israel from Syria, IDF fire at source; October 10, 2023
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-767636
Fire from Syria came after the IDF confirmed that Israeli tanks targeted Hezbollah observation points in southern Lebanon after some 15 rockets were fired into northern Israel.
Sirens sounded in the border communities of Metzuva, Betzet, Shlomi, Hanita, Achziv and Liman in the western Galilee area. A rocket was reported to have fallen in Shlomi, but no injuries or damage were reported.










https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israeli-military-responding-fire-syria-artillery-mortar-shelling-103873262
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AzCal Retred

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Reply #5 on: October 11, 2023, 01:58:09 am
@ #2: Gaza strip population is 6,500 per square kilometer[/b]...just below Hong Kong. What a pressure cooker.

U.S. may send second aircraft carrier toward Israel
The ship was already scheduled to deploy, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin could order it to the eastern Mediterranean.
Lara Seligman; 10/10/2023

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/10/u-s-may-send-second-aircraft-carrier-toward-israel-00120793

The U.S. could soon have two aircraft carriers in the eastern Mediterranean, according to Defense Department officials, a move that would mark a major escalation in U.S. military power in the region as fighting intensifies between Israeli forces and Hamas militants.
The aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, along with its associated warships and fighter jets, was already scheduled to depart from Norfolk, Va., this week and may be ordered to deploy to the waters off the coast of Israel, according to two DOD officials who were granted anonymity to discuss future operations.


xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The stupidity of the latest attack would make sense if the whole idea was actually to draw the blue-water carrier groups into a shallow water near shore kill box. Sailing in the end of the Med Iran/China/Russia know where the boats are and their probable track. All of the threats below are amplified close to shore

https://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/aircraft-carrier-invulnerability.pdf


The first step in attacking a carrier is to find it. Most potential adversaries would have difficulty doing this as long as the
carrier remains in the open sea, takes prudent evasive actions, and actively counters efforts at detection. If a carrier is actually detected, the next step an enemy must take is to establish a continuous target track. That is necessary because a carrier is likely to be far from the location where it was first detected by the time weapons arrive there.

The most significant threats to carriers are cruise missiles, wake-homing torpedoes, ballistic missiles and mines. But cruise
missiles are unlikely to penetrate the battle group’s integrated air defenses, and few potential adversaries are capable of
employing submarines or torpedoes effectively. Ballistic missiles lack necessary targeting features and mines are easily dealt
with using a variety of existing and prospective methods. The intrinsic resilience of large-deck carriers further mitigates the
threat posed by adversaries.

Critics contend that carriers will grow increasingly vulnerable in the early decades of the new century as potential adversaries acquire reconnaissance satellites, long-range cruise missiles, very quiet diesel-electric submarines, and other tools for denying the U.S. Navy access to littoral areas. With so much of its resources and warfighting capacity concentrated in so few vessels, the critics argue, the Navy will be forced to avoid exposing its carriers to danger in places like the Persian Gulf and Formosa Strait.

If an aircraft carrier were lost in combat, thousands of Americans might die, and the popular will to sustain a war effort could be severely undermined.

« Last Edit: October 11, 2023, 02:34:48 am by AzCal Retred »
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GlennF

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Reply #6 on: October 11, 2023, 07:17:36 am
Hamas probably have no idea where the US CVs groups are at present.  How could they ?

But to suggest that Russia and China with multiple submarines and spy satellites at their disposal have no idea where the US CVs are is far stretched.  The things are rather big, surface ships, have a shite load of accompanying support ships and are definitely not equipped with cloaking devices outside Hollywood movies.


AzCal Retred

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Reply #7 on: October 11, 2023, 06:16:30 pm
Hamas probably have no idea where the US CVs groups are at present.  How could they ?

Cheap Drones, US news, Cessna 150 "spy planes", paraglider with a disposable pilot, fishing boats, passenger ships, some idiot on a jet ski, or just get a call from HQ in Iran. "Ayatolla youse guys where the carriers were..." :o Russia & China both have a vested interest in keeping these boys informed.

The OpFor have had a LOT of time to get ready, you can place a LOT of assets dirtside all along the Med. A "loaner" Chinese/Rooskie diesel sub or two pre-positioned with a disposable crew would all by itself be bad news. HOPEFULLY we'll see some preemptive surface & submerged explosions as the air arm clears a path. These CVs all know where Diego Garcia is, so hopefully there's some Big Stick medicine aboard if they really need to clear a path. The OpFor has a LOT of PR & tactical advantage to be gained if "Hammass-whole" gets lucky & renders a CV group combat ineffective. The Med is shallow & narrow at the distal end, a bad place to be if the"Hammass-wholes" have access to a couple lend/lease Kinzhals or DF17's. 300 Shore-to-Ship simultaneous missile launches would be a difficult firing solution for anyone, and carriers are real big.
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AzCal Retred

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Reply #8 on: October 12, 2023, 03:00:17 am
I'll bet the P-3 Orions and P-8A Poseidons look like a cloud of mosquitoes above Cyprus.

U.S. sends aircraft carrier group to eastern Mediterranean in response to Hamas attack on Israel

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hamas-attack-israel-secretary-austin-american-aircraft-carrier-group-eastern-mediterranean/

Austin also announced steps to augment U.S. Air Force fighter aircraft squadrons in the region. USAF aircraft are going into bases in the Middle East where they will be available for operations against Iran.
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AzCal Retred

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Reply #9 on: October 12, 2023, 06:04:55 am
Carrier vulnerability article from 13 years ago...

    Killing a pair of US Carriers is a more tactically useful & probable reason for the recent Hamas debacle than re-demonstrating an already well known political point. The human tragedy in Israel is the bait. The folks setting this up don't care a whit about the collateral human cost.
    These boats were never intended to fight in shallow, constricted spaces. Losing 2/11ths of your Carrier force in one day just can't be allowed to happen. Our Navy had best be ready to go "full-on scorched earth" on any threats to these boats. A counter-attack on "Death to America" Iran resulting from a large-scale Iran-funded, Hamas perpetrated, successful attack on our Carrier groups will push us into WWIII overnight. The moment the hammer drops on their close associate Iran, China & Russia will immediately begin executing their own game plans. This next 3-front war won't be pretty, but it might be quick.


Fortress at Sea? The Carrier Invulnerability Myth
America's nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, especially in today's irregular, asymmetric warfare climate, could be little more than slow-moving targets.
By Commander John Patch, U.S. Navy (Retired); January 2010

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2010/january/fortress-sea-carrier-invulnerability-myth

The recently renewed debate over aircraft carrier requirements has focused mainly on the factors of cost and utility. These issues notwithstanding, analysts often overlook or understate the carriers' inherent vulnerabilities. Regardless of the number of carriers national leadership decides to maintain, because they remain the U.S. Navy's preeminent capital ship and a symbol of American global power and prestige, they are a potential key target for both unconventional and conventional adversaries. Carrier proponents, however, universally seem to accept on faith alone the premise that a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier (CVN) is essentially invulnerable.

Yet an intelligent adversary could potentially exploit carrier weaknesses. The sudden, unexpected loss of a CVN, especially by unanticipated asymmetric means, would shock both the military establishment and the American psyche-perhaps being a military equivalent to the Twin Towers' collapse on 9/11. The truth is, a deployed aircraft carrier is more vulnerable to mission kill than is commonly believed, and the Department of Defense should consider efforts to prevent or mitigate such an exigency.

Presumed Impregnable
The U.S. view of carrier invulnerability is a perilous assumption. If 9/11 taught Washington anything, it clearly demonstrated that fortress America was vulnerable in ways its citizens and defenders never imagined. Terrorists selected targets with maximum psychological impact, employing a relatively sophisticated asymmetric method, seemingly incorporating many of the basic principles of war and operational art: simplicity, synergy, simultaneity and depth, surprise, tempo and timing, security, etc.

Next-Generation Weapons Are Here Now
Emerging technologies and new classes of advanced conventional weapons are also making the carriers' ostensible invulnerability more suspect. Most experts see recent advances in foreign antiship cruise missiles (ASCM), offensive information operations capabilities, stealthy diesel and nuclear-powered submarines, deep water rising mines, and antiship ballistic missiles (ASBM) as direct threats to carrier strike groups proximate to the littorals (i.e., when supporting air operations inland). While contemporary conflicts demonstrate no such apparent threats to carriers, they also involve state adversaries without advanced conventional naval weapons.
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Leofric

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Reply #10 on: October 13, 2023, 10:47:25 pm
We don't know what type of trap might have been set up for Israel according to a former British intellligence officer.


AzCal Retred

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Reply #11 on: October 14, 2023, 01:00:34 am
Hmmmm....We know there are extensive tunnel networks under the city. My guess is Ham-mass & Co. are planning a big group blow-up/kill-off of a hella large group of IDF soldiers, SAR teams & support staff when the IDF enters en mass. A FLAT piece of ground is way easier to keep peaceful than

One possible reason the IDF is running everyone off-site is they plan some hot GBU-28 anti-tunnel action, or maybe the USAF will spare a flight of M117 armed B52 BUFFs to plow the city to dust to a depth of 40 feet. In any event, it looks like Gaza City is destined to be resurrected as a nice jetty or breakwater. A squad of Komatsu D575A-3SD or Caterpillar D-11's could easily make this project happen. The "Gaza" is about 17 square miles of multistory buildings that are used by both just plain folks and a fair amount of real "Ham-masholes". It's like having a country brush pile. Usually they are full of benign frogs, toads, newts, mice, rabbits, quail, etc. Occasionally they fill up with hornets and rattlesnakes. I think the Israelis are getting ready to hit reset and eliminate the "brush pile" and attendant tunnel complexes.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/can-israel-take-out-tunnels-hamas-uses-move-fighters-weapons-rcna120315

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/9/israel-doesnt-care-about-collateral-damage-bunker-busters-used-in-gaza

https://www.bigrentz.com/blog/biggest-bulldozer

https://www.britannica.com/place/Gaza-Strip
In politically stable times, as much as one-tenth of the Palestinian population travels daily to Israel (where they are not allowed to stay overnight) to work in menial jobs. Political tension and outbreaks of violence often led Israeli authorities to close the border for extended periods, putting many Palestinians out of work. As a result, a thriving smuggling industry emerged, based on a network of subterranean tunnels linking parts of the Gaza Strip with neighbouring Egypt. The tunnels provided Palestinians with access to goods such as food, fuel, medicine, electronics, and weapons.

« Last Edit: October 14, 2023, 01:16:50 am by AzCal Retred »
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Richard230

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Reply #12 on: October 14, 2023, 02:04:10 pm
Perhaps they should try flooding the tunnels with seawater. I think there is lots of it nearby.
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AzCal Retred

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Reply #13 on: October 14, 2023, 02:41:33 pm
True enough. I think the GBU-28s are intended to break up the tunnel structure (and occupants...) which would make flooding more "effective" as there wouldn't be many watertight places left to hide left. None of this will be pretty.
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AzCal Retred

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Reply #14 on: October 14, 2023, 10:34:20 pm
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/op-iron-sword-israel-faces-vietnam-trap-as-tunnel-labyrinth-under/

Op Iron Sword: Israel Faces ‘Vietnam Trap’ As Tunnel Labyrinth Under Gaza Could Be IDF’s Biggest Challenge
By Ritu Sharma -October 13, 202
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