[CPJS]

Hydrocarbon fuels for personal transport are on the way out, they will be kept back for processes that are more reliant  on them. Yes there are plenty of reserves of oil and gas but it gets harder to obtain and is often the cause of political issues over rights etc. Electric aeroplanes and supertankers are a long way off.

At the moment as far as I am aware no-one has stuck a flag on the sun yet, so it is there for all to use and is not running out anytime soon.

With the limited knowledge I have, I think the batteries will win the day. The lithium technology will probably be replaced with something less toxic and scarce, graphene?. If we get more solar/ hydro etc. produced electricity the whole process gets a lot cleaner.
Standardised batteries are already being manufactured by some of the leading motorcycle manufacturers, I think a fuel station with racks of charged batteries ready for a quick swap is not  far away.

Hydrogen fuel cells are in principle cleaner but the extraction process uses more energy than  burning hydrogen produces, so is at present not cost effective. The distribution network is not in place unlike electricity. Hydrogen leaks and explosions are a potential risk.

I am sure there is a ton of reasons why I may have got this all wrong, I am looking forward to being educated as this subject interests me.

[Nitrowing]

https://hackaday.com/2021/05/13/toyotas-hydrogen-burning-racecar-soon-to-hit-the-track/#more-476224

Toyota has recently been exploring the technology, and has announced a racecar sporting a three-cylinder hydrogen-burning engine will compete in this year’s Fuji Super TEC 24 Hour race.

[Arschloch]

I would not place any large odds on those alternatives still. A H2 race car is interesting that Toyota may be able to build as a demonstrator. How much fractuation the real world is going to be able to bear remains to be seen. Electric is still nowhere near to be attractive from my point of view.

[axman88]

I think a fuel station with racks of charged batteries ready for a quick swap is not  far away.

You are correct, six years in the past is not far away.  Tesla tried this in 2014.  The program lasted less than a year, likely because people didn't want to exchange their good battery for one of unknown quality.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/battery-swap-pilot-program
https://www.businessinsider.com/teslas-battery-swapping-plan-isnt-working-out-2015-6

But, there is likely a better way to manage a program like this, like pro-rata valuation based on internal audit of the battery quality, it's age, number of recharge cycles, etc.  If you leave a lemon at the battery swap station, the cost would automatically goes on your account.

Of course, making them easy to swap, also makes them easier to steal.

I believe electric will win, as it has already started to win over petroleum and  other fuels, not because it offers superior performance, but because it can offer acceptable performance at a much lower cost.  As the technology matures, and acceptance grows, development costs per unit sold become insignificant, so initial cost will decline to a fraction of what it is now, and as gasoline cost increases, it will be no contest.  I expect to live to see gasoline priced at $20/gallon and difficult to find.

Naptha was less than 20 cents/gallon in its heyday, look at it now:  https://www.acehardware.com/departments/outdoor-living/sporting-goods/camping-goods/82079 

Man used horses for transportation for 8000 years.  We started using gasoline to power our carriages around 1880, and 150 years later, have already used up half of it.  I've owned my share of big block V8s, but that sort of thing, even as a hobby, seems very irresponsible now.

[NVDucati]

Let's remember that hydrogen cells should be thought of as battery. It is not like burning propane in a internal combustion engine as a substitute for gasoline.
A hydrogen cell creates electricity.
Here is a starting point to understand one of the several processes:
"How Fuel Cells Work

Fuel cells work like batteries, but they do not run down or need recharging. They produce electricity and heat as long as fuel is supplied. A fuel cell consists of two electrodes—a negative electrode (or anode) and a positive electrode (or cathode)—sandwiched around an electrolyte. A fuel, such as hydrogen, is fed to the anode, and air is fed to the cathode. In a polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell, a catalyst separates hydrogen atoms into protons and electrons, which take different paths to the cathode. The electrons go through an external circuit, creating a flow of electricity. The protons migrate through the electrolyte to the cathode, where they reunite with oxygen and the electrons to produce water and heat." https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/fuel-cell-basics

One of the more promising ways to produce hydrogen is by "cracking" ammonia. There is a company already in production of a "small site" ammonia cracker for direct conversion to hydrogen for running electric power sub-stations.https://www.gencellenergy.com/ As many know ammonia is used in agriculture. It is available all around the world and requires much less fuss to store and transport. It is also comparatively cheap.

So vehicles (and fork lifts) still have electric motors but they fill in minutes which is a big deal in a 24hour warehouse like Amazon as it eliminates the need for 2/3rds of the other wise required battery electric fork lifts. And don't need the manufacture and purchase of those nasty batteries. Hydrogen cells are currently certified as AUX Power Units(APU) for freight airliners.

One more quick bite info site about Hydrogen Cells for cars: https://www.explainthatstuff.com/fuelcells.html

EDIT: I should acknowledge that hydrogen CAN be compressed and burned but that is not a hydrogen cell.

[AzCal Retred]

It's all about energy density. Even the best Lithium batteries are still about 100 pounds mass to equal one gallon of gas, or probably 3 liters of diesel. This makes vehicle design problematic. Adding 1000 pounds of Lithium batteries or 1500-ish pounds of Nickle Metal Hydride batteries to replace 10 gallons of gasoline (60 pounds) or maybe 8 gallons (48 pounds) of diesel really affects design parameters. Assume that 10 gallons of liquid hydrocarbon fuel burned in a fuel-sipper motor will take a slippery, lighter vehicle maybe 500 miles and be fun to drive also, you can see the issue.

Currently Honda and Toyota both offer H2 powered vehicles for retail sale, as well as most large auto makers. There are a large variety of commercial vehicles currently available. Most of these use compressed H2 and fuel cells, so the are essentially "EV's". Refuel times are typically 5 minutes as opposed to hours or days for equivalent capacity batteries. The only thing stopping H2 adoption is infrastructure. Both Toyota & Honda have already developed & offer grid-tied H2 refueling hardware in parallel with vehicle development, so there is no "tech lag" here, just political foot-dragging opposition from the Petro Industry lobby. There's no need to transport H2, just produce on site. The High Pressure (4,000 - 6,000 PSI, scuba tank numbers) onboard storage is mostly internally coated aluminum with externally reinforced with spun carbon fiber. The same basic hardware is being applied to commercial aircraft, as H2 doesn't consume a big chunk of the payload like batteries now do. 

The real game to me is renewable gasoline, diesel & jet fuel. H2's easy to come by thru electrolysis, and you can drive it with off-peak wind & solar. All you need then is a carbon source, either atmospheric CO2 or biomass. The beauty here is NOTHING needs to change on the vehicle end, you just switch fuel. Another source is from plastic waste using "Chemical Recycling", and last time I checked we were awash in plastic waste. Again, the opposition is mainly political and from the Petro lobby - every pound of plastic recycled is money out of their pocket from oil sales lost. There's nothing stopping us from living in a "Star Trek" future but us.
https://thisisplastics.com/environment/recycling-101-chemical-recycling/

[Richard230]

But if you build it will they come?  The answer for the new H2 station in Sky Londa, across the street from Alice's Restaurant, is NO. The agency that built the station can't even find anyone that wants to lease and run it. The station has been sitting there empty, keeping its hydrogen cold and compressed to 700 bars without any customers for the past three years.     After being built at a cost of millions of (likely government) dollars.

[AzCal Retred]

Really? Trotting out this old horse again? What's next, pictures of the Hindenburg? Do you have any of the data that it was sited with? No? Did you never in your life see a small business fail because there was not proper due diligence regarding location? If it doesn't say Honda, GM, Ford or Toyota, there is no inkling that a proper location study was actually done by subject matter experts; the lack of utilization tells me likely not. H2 refueling stations aren't like bird feeders, you need to know the demographics, market & area, not just be "struck by a thought".  " After being built at a cost of millions of (likely government) dollars. " Do some due diligence - once is not a trend.

[CPJS]

I am enjoying learning more, different comments giving pointers for a bit more research. Which one of the petrochemical companies will blink first, they will be doing their own research into alternatives to hydrocarbons and as soon as they see enough money in it for them they will choose the new direction. As has always happened the fate of us worker ants will depend on the decisions of a few men behind closed doors.

[Richard230]

Really? Trotting out this old horse again? What's next, pictures of the Hindenburg? Do you have any of the data that it was sited with? No? Did you never in your life see a small business fail because there was not proper due diligence regarding location? If it doesn't say Honda, GM, Ford or Toyota, there is no inkling that a proper location study was actually done by subject matter experts; the lack of utilization tells me likely not. H2 refueling stations aren't like bird feeders, you need to know the demographics, market & area, not just be "struck by a thought".  " After being built at a cost of millions of (likely government) dollars. " Do some due diligence - once is not a trend.

From a local news story in 2018:  In 2015, the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) announced it would put $2.2 million toward building hydrogen-fuel stations in 12 Bay Area cities, including Mountain View. The gas supplier company Linde North America received $300,000 in subsidies to build the Mountain View hydrogen pumps, according to a BAAQMD spokeswoman.

What a waste of money!  My recollection is that the project was originally mostly funded by an Obama "stimulus" grant but apparently the grant wasn't enough to complete the project as all work stopped for a couple of years and then was finally finished in 2018, likely by the bond company that was insuring the construction of the H2 station. And now it just sits there. According the the Alice's restaurant owners, there are just no owners of H2 vehicles in the heavily wooded mountain area. Whomever picked the site must have done so for convenience as there was an old gas station at that location, not because there was any hope of seeing H2 vehicle customers.

[Arschloch]

Back to the original post, sunshine is for free which is correct. Who exactly is going to own the "solar" panels is not so sure at all.

I happen to own a argon welding bottle from that Linde company which I turn in for a new one once it needs refilling. To my surprise they like customers like me "not so much". The new "IDEA" is they own all the bottles and you pay a monthly fee if you use it or not. Unlikely they succeed with that scheme as long as there is competition, however they might be working on that already.

[AzCal Retred]

@#9: Just like I said. Good idea, poor implementation.
According the the Alice's restaurant owners, there are just no owners of H2 vehicles in the heavily wooded mountain area. Whomever picked the site must have done so for convenience as there was an old gas station at that location, not because there was any hope of seeing H2 vehicle customers.

@# 10: Who owns the solar panels? You buy your own for about a dollar a watt. Obtain a permit, bolt them on. Then get a connection agreement with the local utility. Stop being so nihilistic and do some basic looking around, the only obstacle here is your enjoyment of creating a synthetic kerfuffle.

[Arschloch]

@#9: Just like I said. Good idea, poor implementation.
According the the Alice's restaurant owners, there are just no owners of H2 vehicles in the heavily wooded mountain area. Whomever picked the site must have done so for convenience as there was an old gas station at that location, not because there was any hope of seeing H2 vehicle customers.

@# 10: Who owns the solar panels? You buy your own for about a dollar a watt. Obtain a permit, bolt them on. Then get a connection agreement with the local utility. Stop being so nihilistic and do some basic looking around, the only obstacle here is your enjoyment of creating a synthetic kerfuffle.

I'm going and buy one tomorrow, and send the bill to Greta. 

[ace.cafe]

Permits?
We don't need no steenking permits!

I have a full off-grid system. No permits around here.

[Arschloch]

Exactly, permits...should I see one of those swedish inspectors around IT will get to see exactly the black hole in ITs face.